The Burden of Expectations

Umaru Musa Yar'Adua was not a man given to dreams but this was one he would not forget in a hurry. As he dozed off sometime in August 1997, he found himself transported into a huge compound where he confronted an unusually huge man who beckoned on him to come inside the premises.
With trepidation, he followed the man until he entered a house where everything was paved with gold. There, this mysterious man handed him a box and an Islamic prayer tesbau (rosary), all gold and shinning. They were heavy.
As Yar'Adua attempted to peep into the box, the man told him to calm down as he invited him into the inner sanctuary of the premises where a rather old man was waiting. "That is your box", said the old man about the box he was holding "and that is your chair", he added, pointing in the direction of a seat which looked like a throne. As Yar'Adua was taking his seat, he woke up.
Three months down the line, specifically on December 9, 1997, he began to realise the full import when his elder brother, the former Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters, Major General Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, died in Abakaliki prison and it was his lot to collect the coffin containing the remains. At that point, Yar'Adua could not but situate the family tragedy in that box he had received in the subconscious. Unknown to him, however, that was only half of the story. Three years later, he became the Governor of his home State, Katsina, eight years after he had sought the same position and failed.
At that point, he must also have reasoned that was the fulfillment of the dream: at last, the throne!
How wrong he must have been.
With his inauguration today as the President of Nigeria, a position sought by his late brother in vain, Yar'Adua could be described as a man of destiny.
Dreams, it has been said, awaken in us the ability to find truth and wisdom while acting as a communication pathway between the real and imaginary worlds where we are given messages that can’t be given in our conscious state.
And according to Dr. Vishwas Purohit, "dreams with intuitive messages are rare and are experienced by people whose minds are pure, serene, and stable. Dreams of spiritually enlightened minds carry messages of great importance."
If Yar'Adua's decade-old dream was, therefore, a premonition of his elevation to the Presidency of Nigeria which by this time last year could not have been within his wildest imagination, are we then to assume that our nation will prosper under him given the surreal environment ("paved with gold") under which he was handed "the box and the throne" in his dream?
Are we to assume that with Yar'Adua as President, notwithstanding the acrimonious election bringing him to power, Nigeria will move from a nation of wasted potentials to a land of promise and opportunities?
These are questions floating in the air.
But as he assumes office today, Yar'Adua understands the enormity of the burden he bears and has set some benchmarks for himself as to what he would consider a successful tenure. He said if he could redress the situation in a few critical sectors, he would be satisfied with himself. These key sectors are: Power and Energy, Niger Delta, Education, Law and Order/Security and Electoral Reform.

• Niger Delta

It is not for nothing that the Niger Delta features as one of the priorities of Yar'Adua as he assumes office today. Currently, there is incessant unrest in the oil-rich but neglected region, marked by a spate of kidnapping, armed robbery, arson and bombing, by various militant groups now operating in the area.
In the last one year, more than 180 foreign nationals, mostly oil workers, have been kidnapped while several now flee the country with the emergence, in December 2005, of a militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), whose attacks have closed about a quarter of Nigeria's oil output.
While the problem of neglect persists, there is also an element of criminality with a situation in which hostages are now exchanged for undisclosed but huge sums in ransom money.
Yar'Adua's response to the complex problem is to redress the developmental/environmental challenge that has made agitation and militancy profitable and this, according to him, would be done by setting up a technical committee that will examine the criteria for funding, while working out the timetable for the implementation of the roadmap already envisioned.
Whether this intervention succeeds or fails will depend on the commitment of all the stakeholders and the political will by Yar'Adua to muster the requisite resources needed for the development of the region.

• Power Sector Emergency

In this sector, Yar'Adua has promised to declare a state of emergency and for good reasons too. In the last eight years of President Olusegun Obasanjo administration, the power sector has consumed billions of dollars by way of investment yet the power supply situation has remained largely unchanged. In fact, the situation has over the years gradually deteriorated.
An earlier promise by the Federal Government to ensure 10,000 megawatts of electricity supply in 2007 has remained unfulfilled, despite the commissioning of some gas turbines and other power projects across the country. The current power supply generation, which is between 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts, has not helped the situation, with incessant black outs which have helped to cripple the national economy.
While Yar'Adua may within the next six months benefit from recent investments in the sector culminating in the commissioning of some power plants, a new approach that would engender sustained investment by all tiers of governments and instituting a new regime of private-public partnership, as he has promised, would have to be aggressively pursued.
Fortunately, Yar'Adua has identified the power sector as a pivot upon which other sectors rest and the most pressing issue on his agenda for change. His predecessor started rather late on this issue, despite initial promises. The challenge now to consumate the reform efforts already started in the sector. He does not have to make the same mistakes. But there are some booby traps already set for him.
With the controversy over the recent sale of the nation's refineries and the popular Egbin thermal station, Yar'Adua would begin by helping to restore not only the confidence of investors but by also addressing the fears of the real stakeholders who feel shortchanged in the process.

• Education

The education sector, which is key to the development of any nation, has not fared too well either in Nigeria. A recent ranking of the world's top universities did not locate any Nigerian university among the top 500, despite a reported 500 percent increase in school fees and the establishment of private universities by some fat cats, including top functionaries of the outgoing administration. Yet in the past Nigerian universities and their products were competing with the best from other societies in the world.
Even in basic education, a recent report of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) is not complimentary, saying progress has been too slow to the basic education targets by 2015, the year set aside by the United Nations to achieve the eight Millennium Development Goals. UNICEF Country Representative, Mr. Ayalew Abai, said millions of Nigerian children are still under-nourished and out of schools, without adequate healthcare.
This itself is self-evident with the number of children that daily roam the streets. But the real collapse is in tertiary education where the quality is low and even at that doors are being closed against majority of school leavers. While a few educational institutions like the Yaba College of Technology have been upgraded to full universities, but that move has not translated into quality education in a reportedly corrupt sector.
Currently, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) is still embroiled in a strike over better welfare and improved working conditions, which has resulted in millions of under-graduates staying at home, and susceptible to criminal activities.
Critical to this sector is reform and funding and as a former lecturer himself, Yar'Adua sees the second as a sore point. Will he then devote more money to education as he has promised? Will he also dialogue with ASUU to fashion a way forward or behave like his predecessor and damn the lecturers?
Chances are that Yar'Adua would adopt the first option given that education, for the last eight years, has been his topmost priority in Katsina. But the first real challenge is that he must persuade the lecturers to go back to the classrooms with assurance that he understands their grievances and that those grievances would be addressed. Will they listen to him?

• Electoral Reform

The election that is bringing Yar'Adua to power is perhaps one of the most acrimonious ever in the history of Presidential elections in Nigeria. It is therefore fitting that electoral reforms should be of major concern to him. But does he understand and can he muster the requisite capacity to address the rot?
First, he must be able to situate the problem. The European Union, which had 150 observers in Nigeria during the general election, said the polls fell "far short of basic international and regional standards for democratic elections."
The head of the European Union monitoring team, Max van den Berg, said it was one of the worst elections that the EU had observed. "The whole thing was not at all living up to the hopes of the Nigerian people, chaotic, and I would say it left them behind, demoralised. EU observers witnessed examples of ballot box stuffing, alteration of official result forms, stealing of sensitive polling materials, vote buying and underage voting," he said.
The Commonwealth Group of 17 Observers talked of significant shortcomings: "The deferred polling hours posed a challenge... in so far as the count was concerned. Darkness fell while counting was still in progress and no provision had been made to provide artificial lighting for such a contingency."
The US-based International Republican Institute with 59 observers said the entire electoral process failed to meet international standards. "Nigeria's election process falls below the standards which Nigeria itself has set in previous elections and also falls below international standards, witnessed by IRI and members of this delegation throughout the world, " said the IRI.
The IRI said it observed "underage voting, voter registration list errors, stuffed ballot boxes, group voting, party observers and police instructing individuals on who to vote for, lack of privacy for voting, lack of results sheets and other materials, falsified results sheets, and early closings".
Reports of both local and foreign observers were the same: the elections were fundamentally flawed. Unfortunately, it was not an isolated incident; elections over the years have been problematic in Nigeria, especially elections held under the 1999 Constitution – 1999 and 2003.
In locating the problem, Yar'Adua has put the blame squarely on the penchant by Nigerians to disregard law and order while seeking loopholes in the bid to secure advantage over others. He promises to address the issues beginning with a review of the April polls without in anyway interfering with the processes at the Election Tribunals. Yar'Adua could earn himself more credibility denied by the mismanagement of the election by INEC, if he could help reform the electoral process. What is not in doubt today is that without the overzealousness of party faithfuls and gross incompetence of INEC, Yar’Adua would still have won the election. His challenge, therefore, is to cleanse the urgent stable and make peoples vote count by restoring credibility to the Nigerian electoral process.

• Security/Law and order

At regular intervals, foreign embassies in Nigeria issue what they describe as 'travel warnings' to their nationals, most of them bordering on their interpretations of the security situation in the country. While some information are sometimes exaggerated, the fact on the ground is that Nigeria today has a security challenge. Just last week, Inspector General of the Federation, Mr. Sunday Ehindero, unwittingly underscored this ugly situation when, in a home video manner, he paraded some 'murder' suspects (with one hooded). In the desperate bid to satisfy Nigerians that the assassination in 2001 of a former Attorney General and Justice Minister, Chief Bola Ige, had been resolved even while nobody has been charged to court on the issue, Ehindero staged a tragic drama for the world thus generating further controversy.
Violence, political killings, armed robbery. These are some of the problems that many Nigerians confront almost on a daily basis. But this situation is also tied to poverty in that there are many idle hands. So to successfully address this issue, jobs have to be created to take many people off the streets. Also tied to this is the issue of law and order. In the last eight years, there has been a gross deficit in this area in that the outgoing administration has shown scant regard for the rule of law. Yar'Adua has promised to chart a totally different course. Nigerians would be watching to see which direction he takes them.
Penultimate Thursday in Abuja, he fielded questions on his hopes for a new Nigeria as well as his vision. Excerpts:

My Main Priorities, By Yar’Adua

You have a responsibility to the people of Katsina State as the governor. You also have a responsibility to Nigeria now as the president-elect. How have you been managing this transition?
I think I have been managing it very well in the sense that I have a system which is working in Katsina State. Currently, I have a deputy governor who is the acting governor. And he has been doing very well. So, generally, since he has been coping well, what I do is, when I go home, we meet, have a discussion and we agree on what to do. And when it comes to implementation, a transition committee is in place and members have been working with the governor-elect for the past two and half weeks, giving him all the necessary information he needs; taking him round the state to see all the outstanding projects that are on-going, the stage they have reached and what is required to continue.
This week has more or less been about briefing and it’s quite easy in that the governor-elect has been part of the PDP (Peoples Democratic Party) political machine. So he knows how the party operates and as a party leader now in the state, I have also linked him up with the party base. I think everything has been going on very well in the state. Here also in Abuja, I have been coping well, receiving delegations, receiving briefings from the Presidency and by Sunday, I will start receiving ministerial briefings. It will be hectic, from morning till late evening, and I think in the last one week, here in Abuja, we have come a very long way in terms of the general briefings.
The transition generally has not been as cumbersome as the one that took place in 1999 because you are talking about the same PDP government and the fact that many of the policies and programmes, you are going to continue with them. That is how to make progress.
So, it has not been difficult at all, unlike the transition that took place in 1999 which was a transition from the military government to the elected civilian government. It is also easy in another sense because it is not a transition from one government controlled by one political party to another civilian government controlled by a different party.
I read one of your speeches where you said you were going to continue with the same policies. And people are already interpreting it to mean that this same pattern of government will continue. Are we going to experience any drastic change especially in terms of people's expectations or are we to assume it is just the same government with a different personnel at the head?
You see, where somebody is doing a good job, even if he wants to go, I will ask him not to go because the important thing is to get people who will be committed to serve this country. So, wherever I feel that some people are doing a very good job, I will retain them to keep providing the service that they have been providing. Where I feel that we need to inject new blood and ideas, we will do so. But you do not expect immediate drastic changes just for the sake of change. You see, when you want to change a complete set of personalities, it will take time before you get the right team. So, my immediate priority is to inject new blood and new ideas and at the same time ensure some form of continuity. In essence, it will be a blend of continuity and change.
As you are coming to power, people expect much from you. The power sector is in comatose, education has collapsed and you can say that of other sectors. Majority of our people are unemployed. How do you feel about this enormity of problems?
Like I said several times, governing a nation and achieving a good result does not happen overnight. It requires hard work and efforts. It is also a matter of time. If you put a good policy in place and you implement it well, it takes time before it begins to manifest. It is just like growing a crop. You have to plant it; you have to water it and it takes time before you start expecting the fruit. So, it is the same thing. What is easy to do is to destroy. You can destroy overnight. But you can't build overnight.
Take the policy on agriculture for example. At a time in the 80's, during the Second Republic, there was a Presidential Task Force on rice importation. That task force was charged with the responsibility of importing rice. In contrast today, there is also a presidential task force on rice. The difference this time is that the current task force is charged with the responsibility of producing rice. Now, if President Obasanjo's presidential task force on rice had been charged with the responsibility of importing rice, it would have performed short-time magic for Nigerians. By simply flooding the place with imported rice, within three months, the price of rice would have come down and become more affordable. But that is not building an economy; that would not make Nigeria to be self-reliant and produce wealth, which is the only way we can grow the economy.
The policy to produce rice will require research and you need the raining season to test and suggest how practically it can be realised. That will take a minimum of three years, after which you will need to contract one out to reproduce through distribution. That will take a minimum of four years. You will need to train workers to go into the field and train farmers on the new technology to increase rice production. If you make this effort and you are working hard, in about seven years, you can begin to see results and you can begin then to produce enough rice within a decade to satisfy the local demand and also begin to produce for export instead of importing. And if you must do this, you need to work hard. You also need to be patient. But the end-result is that you will create jobs, you will add value to the society, because you are now encouraging production. And that way, you can help the rice market.
You see, it requires hard work, but also, you need time because it takes time to achieve results. So, what I can say to Nigerians is that a lot of the policies on ground are directed at making the nation to produce and be self-reliant; our policies are in the right direction. In the long run, we need to build the economy of this nation, create and generate wealth and provide employment. This will form the basis for the liberation of this country. But we can only do this with patience and perseverance and we must work hard. The other thing is that power and energy...
(Cuts in) Yes, in that area you said you were going to declare a national emergency. What in practical terms does that mean?